BEHROOZ HASSANI MAHMOOEI

PhD Candidate, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University

M.Sc.: Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (FUM) - Iran - 2007
B.Eng.: Computer Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (FUM) - Iran - 2004

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http://www-personal.buseco.monash.edu.au/~behroozh

Publications:

More Recently...

Angus, S. D., B. W. Parris, B. Hassani-M. (2009). "Climate Change impacts and Adaptation in Bangladesh: An agent based Approach." The Proceedings of 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, 2720-2726.

Abstract: Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The ressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at he confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress as been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of ts land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and rolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off igher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also xpected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms. Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to ncrease, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and he potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional ydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) oncluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time he glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm. After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into easonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more han a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in outh Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face substantial challenges in the coming decades. In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh, an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches. We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty, migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed policy-oriented model.

ALSO ...

Forthcoming - December 2009: Hassani-M, B. and B. W. Parris (2009). Designing Adaptive Artificial Agents for an Economic Production and Conflict Model. Proceedings of Australian Conference on Artificial Life (ACAL) 2009, Melbourne, Springer. 

Abstract.
Production and conflict models have been used during over the past 30 years to represent the effects of unproductive resource allocation in economics. Their major applications are in modeling the assignment of property rights, rent-seeking and defense economics. This paper describes the process of designing an agent used in a production and conflict model. Using the capabilities of an agent-based approach to economic modeling, we have enriched a simple decision-maker of the kind used in classic general equilibrium economic models, to build an adaptive and interactive agent which uses its own attributes, its neighbors’ parameters and information from its environment to make resource allocation decisions. Our model presents emergent and adaptive behaviors than cannot be captured using classic production and conflict agents. Some possible extensions for future applications are also recommended in the paper.

Recently...

Hassani-M, B. and B. W. Parris (2009). The Good, the Bad or the Ugly: An agent based model of economic conflicts and artificial transfers. 15th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance. Sydney, July 2009.

Abstract:

The term “artificial transfers” refers to a class of directly unproductive economic activities which has been studied in theories of rent-seeking and conflict over the last twenty years. Generally, the term includes economic interactions which do not lead to the creation of wealth but instead only transfer assets among economic agents without any value-added. This paper uses an agent-based model to present an economic environment where agents can decide to allocate their resources either to production or to unproductive activities such as theft and protection. Each allocation strategy is shown with a triple which is represented through a binary bit string and optimizes by a genetic algorithm based on the best trade-off experienced during the agent’s life. The agents can also inherit the strategies of their parents as an intergenerational interaction. The decisions are made based on personal attributes like the amount of current wealth, morality and degree of risk-taking, and contextual features like security. A simple fuzzy logic function has been used for the interpretation of safety and danger in the environment. The results include the final formation of resource allocation by agents, convergence of strategies and also distribution of wealth among different types of agents. Compared with traditional equation-based models with representative agents, our approach provides a dynamic environment with heterogeneous boundedly rational agents who use feedbacks from their own actions and surroundings to make resource allocation decisions. The title reflects the fact that agents can be categorized in three main classes: Good or the most productive, Ugly or the most unproductive and Bad which takes action between these two extremes.

Book Chapter

2005 -"The Role of Vocational Training Centers in the Development of a Knowledge-based Economy" In E. Salehi (eds.), The Role of Technical and Vocational Training in Economic and Social Changes, Mazandaran University, ISBN: 964-06-6661-0

Conferences:

2008 -"Information, Rent-seeking and Economic Growth: Application of ACE Modeling", International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents

2005 -"A Plan for the Development of a Tourism Cluster in North Khorasan" Presented in the Conference of Development of North Khorasan

2005 -"Consideration of Interactions among Higher Education Systems and Knowledge-based Structures and their Effects on Human Resources and Development Indicators" Proceeding of Second Conference on Employment and National Higher Education System

2005 -"A Clustering Model for the Consideration of the Role of Higher Education in Economic Development" Proceedings of the Second Conference on Employment and the National Higher Education System

2005 -"The Effects of the Formation of Industrial Clusters on Productivity" Proceedings of First Conference on Productivity and Development

2005 -"The Role of COPs in Firm Productivity Improvements based on Knowledge Management Concepts" Proceedings of First Conference on Productivity and Development

2005 -"Knowledge based Economics of Energy" Fifth National Conference of Energy

2004 -"The Roles and Duties of Economic Sectors in the Development of Infrastructure and Increased Knowledge Usage in an Economy" Proceeding of Iran Economy and the World

Honors and Awards:

2008 MGS/MIPRS Scholarship - Monash University

2007 Ranked Second - Among postgraduate students of Department of Economics - FUM

2006 Ranked First - Among all postgraduate students - FUM

2005 Best Paper in Second Conference of Employment and National Higher Education System

2004 Best Member of Student Scientific Committee of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad