به شدت درگیر مقاله ای هستم که باید نسخه ی اولش را تا دو هفته ی دیگر برای کنفرانسی در نیوزلند آماده کنم و نسخه ی کامل ترش را به صورت پوستر برای اولين كنفرانس ملي خشكسالي و تغيير اقليم، که به گمانم تاریخ ارسالش 25 ژانویه است. بعد هم باید دو سه بخش اساسی مدل را تغییر بدهم و دوباره خروجی را بر اساس شرایط ناگهانی تهیه کنم و اگر خوب جواب داد و کل مقاله را از اول بنویسم و برای کنفرانسی که اسفندماه در استرالیا برگزار می شود آماده بشوم. اینجا چکیده ی نسخه ی اول مقاله را درج می کنم. از نظرات دوستان به شدت استقبال خواهم کرد. 

Sustainability and Security in a Changing Climate: An Agent-based Model

Behrooz Hassani-M and Brett W. Parris

Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics – Monash University – Australia

Abstract:
The relationship between climate change and conflict is not yet clear as empirical evidence provides mixed conclusions about their associations. Some authors believe that climate change will exacerbate conflict via channels such as scarcity of vital resources like water or mass migration of people. Other researchers have analysed modern and historical data and case study observations to argue that so far there has not been significant evidence of conflicts arising from climatic impacts. In this paper, we use an agent-based computational model to simulate an environment based on the theory of production and conflict where agents can allocate their resources to production, predation (appropriation) and protection. Strategy selection is adaptive as agents can learn from their previous experience and optimize their behaviour through a genetic framework. Socio-economic sustainability is measured using a range of indicators including perception of local insecurity, income per capita growth, population growth, changing carrying capacity and resource allocation patterns. The results show that in environments with a proportion of the population prone to predatory behaviour, unsustainable consumption of resources can increase the resources allocated to predation, which in turn fuels conflict. Climatic changes which reduce productivity and ecological carrying capacity can intensify the drivers of predation, exacerbating conflict and leading to protracted insecurity and unsustainability.

همزمان و در این دنیای گرفتاری خواندن کتابی را شروع کرده ام با عنوان Economic Models of Climate Change: A Critique که اگر چیز جالبی داخلش پیدا بشود در جریانتان می گذارم.