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Climate Change - مبانی و مباحث علمی - Climate Science
Written by Behrooz Hassani M   
Wednesday, 13 October 2010 14:43

 

مقاله ای که اخیرا در PNAS منتشر شده است نشان می دهد که بین پانزده تا سی درصد کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای از طریق کاهش جمعیت قابل دسترسی است. این مطالعه در حالی منتشر شده است که موضوع جمعیت در بسیاری از سناریوهای اقلیمی مورد توجه کافی قرار نگرفته اند. جزییات بیشتر را مطالعه کنید:

 

PopulationNeill and his colleagues used an energy-economic growth model to study how different population growth scenarios influence emission pathways by 2050 and 2100. They also considered what effect increasing urbanization might have on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Aging reduces emissions as elderly people contribute less to economic growth. Urbanization has the opposite effect: The migration of people from the countryside to large cities boosts the supply of labour and so fuels economic growth and the demand for energy, the study finds.

Aging is likely to dominate future demographic development in most industrialised countries, the study concludes. But in China and India, which together account for more than one third of global population, urbanization is likely to be the key factor.

The analysis covered 34 countries in nine regions representing different states of economic development. The authors combined data, including household size and age, with United Nations projections on population growth. By 2100, the global population is projected to rise from around 6.5 billion to 5.5 to 14 billion.

 این مقاله از اینجا قابل دسترسی است.

 

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