Abstract

The relationship between climate change and conflict is not yet clear as empirical evidence provides mixed conclusions about their associations. Some authors believe that climate change will exacerbate conflict via channels such as scarcity of vital resources like water or mass migration of people. Other researchers have analysed modern and historical data and case studies to argue that so far there has not been any significant evidence of conflicts arising from climatic impacts. In this paper, we use an agent-based computational model to simulate an environment based on the theory of production and conflict where agents can allocate their resources to production, predation (appropriation) and protection. Strategy selection is adaptive as agents can learn from their previous experience and optimize their behaviour through a genetic framework. Socio-economic sustainability is measured using a range of indicators including perception of local insecurity, population growth, changing carrying capacity and resource allocation patterns. The results show that in environments with a proportion of the population prone to predatory behaviour, climate changes which reduce resource productivity and availability and ecological carrying capacity can intensify the drivers of predation, exacerbating conflict and leading to protracted insecurity and unsustainability.

Keywords: Climate Change, Security, Agent-based Models, Conflict, Genetic Algorithm