| طوفان، تندباد، اقلیم و شکاف بلایای طبیعی از نگاه تایم | | Print | |
| Climate Change - مبانی و مباحث علمی - Climate Science |
| Written by Behrooz Hassani M |
| Tuesday, 19 April 2011 15:43 |
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تایم دو مطلب منتشر کرده است که خصوصا برای دوستانی که به موضوع بلایای طبیعی علاقمند هستند می تواند جالب باشد. در مطلب اول، تایم به مقایسه ی آمادگی در مقابله با بلایای طبیعی در کشورهای غنی و فقیر می پردازد و در مطلب دوم به ارتباط میان تغییر اقلیم و بلایایی مانند طوفان ها و تندبادها اشاره می کند. خیلی دلم می خواست کمی از هر مطلب را ترجمه کنم اما بی نهایت خسته ام و تردید ندارم که ترجمه ی ضعیف و پر اشتباهی خواهد بود. زحمتش باشد با خودتان. از مطلب دوم این پاراگرف ها برگزیده اند:
So now the question I'm all but contractually obligated to ask after a major weather disaster: did climate change play a role in this violent outbreak of tornadoes? The answer is maybe—but that's not the right question to ask. Tornadoes—even more than other severe weather events like hurricanes or floods—are inherent unstable and difficult for forecasters to predict. That's part of what makes cyclones so dangerous and so frightening—while meterologists can identify the conditions that lead to tornadoes, there's still no way to pinpoint exactly when and where one will touch down. And that uncertainty also makes it harder to gauge what impact warming temperatures might have on tornado frequency and intensity. After all, while there's fairly robust science on the connection between climate change and hurricanes—the short version seems to suggest that warming might make storms stronger, if not necessarily more common—there's still plenty of room for vigorous disagreement on that score. By contrast, there hasn't been anywhere near as much research done on the possible connections between climate change and tornadoes. A 2009 study by University of Georgia researchers suggested that drier autumns and winters that might be seen due to warming could actually lead to fewer tornadoes developing during the spring season, at least in the Southeast, though the scientists cautioned that their data was preliminary. A research project by Michael Pateman and Drew Vankat found that the frequency of tornadoes had increased between 1950 and 1999—though better detection likely played a significant role in those statistics. But if there's strong evidence that climate change and tornadoes are connected, researchers have yet to uncover it—and given how difficult and time-consuming it is to attribute a weather event to warming, don't expect a firm conclusion soon. کلمات کلیدی:
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